2025 Final Four odds, early predictions for Duke vs. Houston, Auburn vs. Florida
The 2025 men's Final Four will feature four No. 1 seeds for the first time since 2008 and the second time ever, which would make a prediction of what might happen as difficult as ever if not for the fact this Final Four also includes one of the most dominant 1-seeds in recent memory.
The Duke Blue Devils have the highest net rating in the history of KenPom.com rankings (which date back to 2002), illustrating just how dominant they've been this season. So, there's no confusion about which remaining team is the best. Duke is the +100 national championship favorite for a reason. The biggest thing giving Houston, Florida and Auburn supporters hope is the fact they're also some of the highest-rated teams ever. It all makes for what should be a fascinating finish to the college basketball season.
These are my predictions for how it'll play out, with odds via BetMGM.
Florida vs. Auburn
Best bet: Florida moneyline
While I like Florida to win this game (the Gators were my original championship pick), I'm not completely comfortable betting on the Gators to pull away by more than a 3-pointer, which is why I favor the moneyline over laying the 2.5-point spread. Florida is just 1-3 ATS since the start of the tournament, while the Tigers are 3-1. As the spread suggests, this game could come down to the final possession.
Final score: Florida 83, Auburn 82
Houston vs. Duke
Best bet: Duke -5.5
If you didn't get this spread at the opening 4.5-point line, don't worry. I think there's still room to lay more points without much sweat. As I mentioned before, the Blue Devils are one of the best teams we've seen in recent memory. They don't have many weaknesses. Even with Houston being KenPom's top-rated defense this season, Cooper Flagg and company are a challenge unlike any the Cougars have seen. Not to mention, the Devils boast a top-five defense themselves. Ultimately, I expect Duke's shot-making ability from the perimeter to make the difference.
Final score: Duke 78, Houston 66
National Championship
Duke vs. Florida
While we're here, I'll go ahead and take a stab at an early championship pick, beginning with an admission of stubbornness. Not only did I pick Florida to win the national championship in my original bracket, I doubled down in my second-chance bracket. Today is when I submit to Duke being the rightful favorite. If the Gators win, it'll be a slight upset.
The thing I underestimated about Duke was how long it could sustain such a dominant level of play while being led by underclassmen (they have three freshmen in the starting lineup), but that hasn't been a problem to this point. Sometimes a team's talent is too good to fail, and that appears to be the case here, which is why I'm no longer expecting a letdown. With that said, Duke's size and length has the potential to give the Gators trouble. Look for the Blue Devils to close driving lanes and force contested threes. If the Gators hit enough, they have a chance. If not, Duke takes it.
Final score: Duke 84, Florida 80